Iran’s Tech Threats, Trump’s Midterm Strategies, and Polymarket’s Failed Launch: A Deep Dive into the ‘Uncanny Valley’

Kate Knibbs: So, you went two times?

Makena Kelly: Yes, Kate. I went two times.

Kate Knibbs: I didn’t catch that.

Zoë Schiffer: Hold on, is the Pentagon Pizza thing a joke about the pizza predicting the war?

Makena Kelly: Exactly.

Zoë Schiffer: Oh, my gosh.

Makena Kelly: They had those Pentagon pizza trackers set up. When I returned the second night, yes, I went back that second night. Most things were operational. A few screens were still off, but I didn’t see any actual Bloomberg terminals. There were some monitors that looked like Polymarket had created their own quirky versions, but the genuine $50,000 Bloomberg terminal was missing. The second night was also mainly people there to observe the event, though I did meet a few who had placed bets on sites like Polymarket and Kalshi. One was named William, who said he was in the military but didn’t provide his full name. He got involved last year by betting his entire tax return on sporting events in Oklahoma City.

Makena Kelly, archival audio: So, you used Kalshi?

William, archival audio: Yes.

Makena Kelly, archival audio: When did you first start using the service?

William, archival audio: Probably when I received my tax return.

Makena Kelly, archival audio: OK.

William, archival audio: I filed my taxes pretty early, and I thought, “Oh, great! I got my tax return. What should I do with it?” So, I decided to put it on Kalshi.

Makena Kelly: He mentioned that he fluctuates about 100 dollars, but hasn’t seen any significant winnings. While some individuals make massive insider bets raking in millions, this guy seems to be just having fun.

Brian Barrett: Kate, what do you think when you see a pop-up like this from Polymarket? Is it an attempt to legitimize itself or just a marketing ploy? How does it relate to the explosive growth we’re seeing with these companies as they try to engage more users?

Kate Knibbs: This event certainly appears to be a blatant effort to attract DC-based journalists, if nothing else. Something Makena said really sums up the current situation, especially about the guys in the Palantir hoodies. It was around the same week this bar opened that Polymarket announced a partnership with Palantir, which is assisting them in maintaining their market integrity. Palantir will be working to help Polymarket identify insider traders and market manipulators across sports events, which is quite fascinating. I inquired with Polymarket last week about any other collaborations with Palantir while trying to get them to comment on the Iran bets that have caused some concern. They stated that Palantir’s involvement was strictly related to sports, which I found odd. It highlights their rapid growth but in a chaotic way that lacks clarity. I wondered why, if they were involving Palantir, they didn’t have them tackle geopolitical issues instead of March Madness. It’s a wild time, indeed.