Taiwan Is Hurrying to Develop Its Own Drones Before Time Runs Out

In a short time, drones have emerged as crucial elements in warfare. Conflicts in Ukraine, Iran, Nagorno-Karabakh, Sudan, and beyond have demonstrated how autonomous vehicles are vital to contemporary combat.

Taiwan is acutely aware of this reality. With concerns over a potential invasion from China, the island nation possesses the necessity, expertise, and industrial capability to establish a strong and advanced drone program.

However, Taiwan aims to produce 180,000 drones annually by 2028, yet it faces challenges in developing this sector from the ground up. Last year, production was under 10,000 units.

“Taiwan certainly has the capability to create the finest drones worldwide,” states Cathy Fang, a policy analyst at the Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET).

So, what’s holding it back?

Crafting a Battlefield

On June 16, Fang and her colleagues released a comprehensive report detailing the slow progress of Taiwan’s drone industry. Their findings indicate that the country manufactured between 8,000 and 10,000 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the past year, hindered by “structural challenges” that impede current production rates and the ambitious target. Key obstacles identified were “high manufacturing costs, low domestic procurement, and minimal orders from foreign governments.”

Fang and other DSET researchers shared insights from their report with WIRED during a briefing in Taipei in May.

Taiwan has faced the looming threat of Chinese invasion for decades, but recent developments have made this threat more pressing. Beijing has signaled its aim to fully modernize the People’s Liberation Army by 2027; Taiwanese officials warn that an invasion could occur as early as that date or before Premier Xi Jinping’s term concludes in 2029.

While there are differing opinions on the precise nature of potential Chinese military aggression, analysts in Taiwan are concerned it could manifest as a comprehensive assault involving air and naval power, leading to a full land invasion.

This urgency drives Taiwan to seek innovative defense solutions rapidly. As noted by an American commander in 2023, Taiwan’s self-defense may require transforming the Taiwan Strait into a “hellscape”—targeting advancing Chinese ships and aircraft with swarms of unmanned aerial and naval vehicles. This approach does not necessitate the complete destruction of China’s formidable navy and air force but aims to delay Beijing’s progress long enough for Taiwan’s allies to come to its aid.

Taipei is already taking steps in the right direction. In 2022, the government initiated the Drone National Team, a program designed to connect government and industry for the expansion of this emerging field. The team, in particular, has sought lessons from Ukraine, which has heavily relied on small, tactical, cost-effective UAVs that can perform multiple missions while closely integrating with ground forces. Currently, Ukraine possesses a vast domestic drone industry, with plans to acquire 4.5 million small drones this year, alongside its long-range unmanned missile initiatives, autonomous ground vehicles, and uncrewed naval drones.