Strange Terrain: The Iran Conflict in the Age of AI, Ethics of Prediction Markets, and Paramount Outshines Netflix

Zoë Schiffer: Emil Michael, it’s best to disable your LinkedIn views; people can notice when they check on your phone.

Brian Barrett: That’s a suggestion for Emil Michael if you’re tuning in. And definitely give Uncanny Valley a listen.

Leah Feiger: This individual from the Trump administration is effectively spearheading the opposition against Anthropic. He has strong connections in tech and is seen as the Pentagon’s prime adversary to anyone challenging their authority. It’s noteworthy that not only does he lack strong operational security, but he’s also willing to make this a very public conflict. This isn’t just a warning to Anthropic; it sends a message to anyone else who might challenge these policies.

Brian Barrett: I want to check in on something crucial. Have you all recently reviewed your Kalshi or Polymarket portfolios? How’s everyone doing?

Leah Feiger: I haven’t placed any bets on our Survivor winners yet, but that will change soon.

Brian Barrett: Speaking of surprises that shouldn’t catch us off guard anymore, prediction markets have really pervaded our lives—I’m referring to the general “our,” not just the three of us.

Leah Feiger: We actually text each other every morning, asking, “What did you make on Kalshi last night?”

Brian Barrett: Exactly. It’s not shocking to see a lot of betting revolving around the Iran conflict. Presently on Polymarket, one of the most active bets is: “Will the Iranian regime collapse by June 30th?” The total stake in that market is around 7 million dollars.

Leah Feiger: That’s really troubling, Brian.

Brian Barrett: Indeed.

Leah Feiger: These are real lives at stake. I get that much of this has been turned into a game. I realize the stock market and our approach to all of this can feel gamified, but this situation feels exceptionally trivialized to me.

Brian Barrett: Regarding people’s lives, there was a significant uproar just earlier this week about how Kalshi resolved a market. There was a 54 million dollar bet concerning the fate of Iran’s supreme leader, phrased along the lines of him being out of power.

Leah Feiger: That’s precisely what happened.

Brian Barrett: And then he was struck by a missile.

Leah Feiger: So, technically, he is out of power, but that wasn’t the nature of the bet.

Brian Barrett: Since betting on deaths is prohibited, they found creative ways around that, leading to issues in settling these markets. It raises ethical concerns, especially given there was a 54 million dollar pool on this individual, including a user called MAGAMyMan who ended up with a $553,000 gain due to the timing. It’s appalling. Regardless of whether this constitutes insider trading, it’s grotesque.